Sai Weng Loses His Horse 塞翁失马
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The story
Two thousand years ago, an old farmer on China's frontier lost his only horse. His neighbors said, what terrible luck. The old man shrugged. Maybe. Who knows?
Months later, the horse came home, bringing a magnificent wild stallion with it. What amazing luck, everyone cheered. Maybe, he said. Who knows?
Then his son rode the wild stallion, fell, and broke his leg. Such awful luck! The old man poured some tea. Maybe.
A year later, war came. Nearly every young man was marched off to the front, and most never returned. His son, with his bad leg, stayed home. So, was it good luck or bad luck? Maybe. Who knows?
A modern reading (ours)
Good and bad fortune turn into each other. The old man's calm “Maybe. Who knows?” is the whole lesson: judge events slowly.
Source
Huainanzi, Renjian chapter (2nd c. BCE, public domain). Retold in English; illustrations are AI-generated.